The European Central Bank decided today to keep the euro’s interest rate at 1% as analysts had expected. The annualized inflation-rate (PDF) is expected to reveal a decrease from 1.0% in January to 0.9% in February. Quarter-over-quarter GDP growth (PDF) across the continent remained level at 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009, in line with expectations.
Growth in retail sales (PDF) — an important measurement of consumer spending, roughly thirds of the economy — fell from 0.5% in December to -0.3% in January, matching expectations (see chart). Productivity PMI (PDF) declined from 56.9 in January to 56.4 in February. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) disappointed analysts by declining from 52.00 to 51.80 over the same period of time instead of matching expectations by remaining steady. For the last two indexes, a figure higher than 50 indicates economic growth.
Germany
Growth in retail sales plummeted from 0.9% in January to 0.0% in February, but a decline to -0.5% had been expected. Retail turnover declined by 3.4% in real terms over the same period of time. Average gross earnings by federal-government employees fell by 0.4% in 2009 in the first decline since the founding of the country after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Analysts attributed a decline in Construction PMI from 40.2 to 28.9 to poor weather. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 51.70 to 51.90, surprising analysts who had expected the measure to remain level.
France
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) met expectations by falling from 54.70 in January to 54.60 in February.
United Kingdom
The Bank of England kept its interest rate at 0.5%. The Halifax House Price Index (Word document) fell from from 0.4% in January to -1.5% in February in a steep decline compared to the 0.3% expected by analysts. However, all-sector PMI (PDF) continued to improve in January, signaling a possible recovery.
Japan
The growth rate in capital spending rose from -24.8% to -17.3%, beating expectations of an increase to -18%.
Russia
Initial reports suggest that year-over-year GDP (GDP) rose 0.5% in February but quarter-over-quarter GDP declined by 0.1% (see above).
