The Return Of The Great Depression

Government Debt at All Levels

Carlton Smith — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 02:16:38 +0000

Last week I posted a piece regarding the dramatic rise in national debt. Alarming enough on its own, the national debt statistics only show part of the picture of government debt in the United States. Though the aggregated states and municipalities have not taken on as much debt as the national government, the numbers are still significant. Every state in the union currently carries a negative debt balance, but some are far worse than others.

When measured per capita, the states carrying the highest debt are Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, New Jersey and New York, holding between $2,000 and $5,000 of debt ...more

Employment Situation Report

Carlton Smith — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:52:58 +0000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February 2010 Employment Situation Report today, showing the employment situation in the U.S. is largely unchanged since January...more

Consumer Credit Report

Carlton Smith — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:37:48 +0000

The Consumer Credit Report for January 2010 was released by the Federal Reserve last Friday, showing a modest gain in total consumer credit. The trend has been declining since 2008, with 2009 total credit going into the negative, representing a contraction in the credit market.

The most dramatic drops have been in revolving credit. This trend did not change for this report. Most non-revolving loans are collateralized, whereas revolving credit is represented mainly by credit cards and revolving credit lines at banks and credit unions. Declines in both markets were seen throughout 2009, with revolving credit bearing the brunt of the ...more

Israeli Housing, Unemployment, Consumer Confidence

Samuel J. Scott — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 05:21:29 +0000

JERUSALEM — Israel is still the third-strongest housing market in the world after losing its number-one ranking to Hong Kong and Taiwan in the second half of 2009, according to the Global Property Guide. Home prices were 15.5% higher in inflation-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter of 2009 than the corresponding quarter of 2008.

Israel is widely seen as the last Western country to fall into recession and the first to resume growth as a result of its monetary and fiscal polices combined with stricter lending-standards that caused the country to avoid the subprime-mortgage collapse.

In related news, the ...more

The EU’s Sovereign-Debt Crisis

Samuel J. Scott — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 00:08:26 +0000

No matter how large a country’s debt may seem when it is reported in the daily headlines, a debt figure in nominal terms is a useless statistic unless it can be placed in an relevant, economic context. A headline like “U.S. debt explodes to $13 trillion” is meaningless by itself.

To judge the debt level of a country, economists generally use a statistic that is the government debt as a percentage of gross domestic-product (GDP). The reasoning is simple: as long as government revenue grows more quickly than debt payments, the country is fiscally sound. (The government receives more revenue from ...more

Money Supply Report

Carlton Smith — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:46:38 +0000

The Federal Reserve Money Supply Report was released today, showing an almost 1% contraction in January 2010. The chart below shows the month to month percent change in money supply since January 2008...more

Factory Orders Report

Carlton Smith — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:05:31 +0000

The preliminary Factory Orders Report for January 2010 was released today by the U.S. Census Bureau, showing a modest increase in new orders at 1.7%. This number was revised down from the 3% gain reported in the advanced report for January 2010 on February 25.

Jobless Claims Report

Carlton Smith — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 02:53:39 +0000

The Department of Labor Jobless Claims report out today shows a 6% drop in initial unemployment claims when adjusted for seasonal variations, with 469,000 new claims this week compared to 498,000 last week...more

EU Interest Rate & Retail Sales, UK Housing, Russian GDP

Samuel J. Scott — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:38:32 +0000

The European Central Bank decided today to keep the euro’s interest rate at 1% as analysts had expected. The annualized inflation-rate (PDF) is expected to reveal a decrease from 1.0% in January to 0.9% in February. Quarter-over-quarter GDP growth (PDF) across the continent remained level at 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009, in line with expectations.

Growth in retail sales (PDF) — an important measurement of consumer spending, roughly thirds of the economy — fell from 0.5% in December to -0.3% in January, matching expectations (see chart). Productivity PMI (PDF) declined from 56.9 in January to ...more

February 2010 Monster Job Index

Carlton Smith — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 13:11:01 +0000

The Monster Job Index for February 2010 was released this morning, showing gains in employment across most sectors of the economy...more